Click the Titles Below to Access Research
Without the boost from the extremely mild winter, real GDP almost surely would have contracted in the first quarter. Meanwhile, corporate profits declined on a year-over-year basis for the sixth consecutive quarter.
Many analysts suggest that the ongoing decline in U.S. earnings will not be followed by recession. Don’t listen to them. The periods in which such an outcome occurred have less in common with the current period than most people realize.
Luxury has outperformed the low-end for most of the U.S. recovery, but this trend is changing.
We wrote in the summer of 2013 that China’s leaders “may well feel compelled to shift toward policies that directly
harm their EM brethren: currency devaluation, enhanced support and subsidies for exports, and dumping” – all of which have come true over the past few years.
Deflation fears were widespread in early 2015, giving rise to attractive trading opportunities when those fears subsided.
The end of QE will not depress U.S. stock prices. We continue to expect U.S. markets to outperform most other major stock markets around the world.
Download . . .
There won’t be any short-term interest rate changes over the next five years. At least, none to speak of.
Download . . .
The consensus still underestimates the profound fundamental dilemma facing emerging markets. We maintain our bearish view on EMs – which we first wrote about in June 2012.
Download . . .
Many think of profit margins for the aggregate economy as they may think about margins for an individual firm – erroneous reasoning that can get investors into serious trouble. The soundest way to think about the determinants of profit margins is to look at the profit sources.
Download . . .
Skyrocketing U.S. public debt will not lead to default, inflation, necessarily higher taxes, or necessarily slower economic growth in the future, given the unique economic environment. Public debt in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan can go much higher than people think–and has before–without causing the dire consequences that many fear.
Download . . .